Politics
Victoria’s election – probably minority government
“Dignified” isn’t the word that comes to mind to describe the campaign for today’s Victorian election. William Bowe’s Poll Bludger reports on a Roy Morgan poll showing that Labor still holds a substantial Labor TPP lead, based on primary votes of 38.0 percent for Labor, 32.5 percent for the Coalition, and 12.5 percent for the Greens, but the general mood seems to be moving strongly against Labor and it’s a brave person who can predict the TPP outcome when there are so many parties.
For political tragics who will be watching the results tonight, the table below shows how Victorians voted in the last state election and in this year’s federal election. Note the high Labor vote in 2018.
For those who just want to pick the mood of the electorate, the two pictures below capture some of the feeling. Something fuzzy about the Teals, and contempt for public property from Andrews’ enemies.
There’s a high probability that neither Labor nor the Coalition will command a majority of seats. Wait for journalists, conditioned by decades of exposure to the “Westminster” system to write about the disaster of a “hung parliament”.
The other Senator Pocock – concerns about wasted public money
There are two Senators named Pocock, both newly elected. Independent Senator David Pocock of the ACT has received a fair bit of media cover, because of his vote in the government’s industrial relations legislation.
Greens Senator Barbara Pocock of South Australia has commanded less attention, but her contribution to Inside Story – What I learned at Senate estimates – is well worth reading, for she gives us an insight into the workings of the Senate estimates process That’s one of the few places where public servants are held to account by their employers. She describes some of the terrible waste she has found in public expenditure.
She sees that waste in terms of the amount of money that has been spent on administrative overheads, inefficiencies, and unjustifiably high profits in private for-profit corporations contracted to provide public services:
Waste, profiteering, bad program design, lack of accountability, poor evaluation. A starved public sector, hollowed out and wounded. Over the past decade, we have squandered millions on marketisation and the overuse of consultants. It is a huge challenge to rein this in.
Murdoch and Trump – the end of a beautiful affair
The US midterm elections have not gone well for Trump. So badly, that he seems to have lost the uncritical support of the Murdoch media, writes Rodney Tiffen in The Conversation: Trump announces he’ll run for president again as Murdoch turns on him – and it could be politically expensive for both. In dumping Trump the Murdoch media is alienating itself from Trump’s constituencies, who are still a large and solid bloc that no media can afford to lose.
That’s in the context of the USA. Tiffen also makes three points about its relevance to Australia, suggesting that the Murdoch media may be losing its influence, and explaining why its trenchant anti-Labor editorial line does not seem to have been effective. First is its generally declining circulation, and its readership becoming more concentrated among older people unlikely to shift their political attitudes. Second is the loss of its once well-honed ability to pick the public mood. And third is its crude extremism, which does not go down well with voters.
Malaysia’s election – an Islamist party gains, Anwar Ibrahim finally gets his chance, Mahathir Mohammed exits before he makes a century
The national election on November 19 was essentially a three-way race between Anwar Ibrahim’s PKR (a centrist and multi-ethnic coalition), Muhyiddin Yassin’s BERSATU (an Islam, regional and indigenous coalition), and Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s UMNO (traditional right).
In terms of seats won, BERATSU enjoyed a strong gain at the expense of the two other main parties, going from 32 to 73 seats in the 222-seat lower house. PKR lost seats but with 82 seats it still holds more seats than any other party. UMNO did badly, losing 41 seats and now holdings only 30 seats.
BERATSU’s gains seem to have arisen from its ability to reach those who would not normally support a religious-based party, including young people concerned with environmental issues.
Pundits were expecting Muhyiddin Yassin to be appointed prime minister, but the King has appointed Anwar Ibrahim. (Kings can be useful if they live in the same country, but not if they live on the other side of the planet, immersed in a different culture, and with prime loyalty to a different nation.)
With the largest number of seats, Anwar Ibrahim has been able to gain support from UMNO to form a unity government. It is possible that the government will be unstable, but Malaysians have become used to political instability, just as we did for a few years.
This election is the end of the road for Mahathir Mohammed who lost his own seat. At age 97, 17 years older than Biden, he must have been close to the oldest prominent politician in any democracy.